IBO Cross-Year Analysis (2022-2026)
The Big Picture
Competition at a glance, year by year
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Host | Armenia (Online) | Al Ain, UAE | Astana, KZ | Quezon City, PH | Vilnius, LT |
| Competitors | 237 | ~293 | 203 | 298 | 302 |
| Countries | 59 | 63 | 66 | 81 | 78 |
| Gold medals | 26 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 33 |
| Medal rate | 55.3% | ~52.6% | 84.2% | 60.1% | 61.5% |
| Gold rate | 11.0% | ~9.9% | 15.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% |
| Gold-Silver gap | 0.54 pts | 0.39 pts | 0.53 pts | 0.38 pts | 0.32 pts |
| Theory vs final r | 0.77 | 0.84 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Winner | Y. Korobitsyn | Yufei Chen | Peiyu Wang | Tianran Ma | Ziheng Wang |
IBO 2024 was an outlier with its 84.2% medal rate; the 2025 and 2026 editions returned to the historic ~60% range. The field has been growing steadily: 302 competitors in 2026 is the largest in recent memory, up from 203 in 2024. Meanwhile, the Gold-Silver gap has tightened from 0.54 (2022) to 0.32 (2026). Getting to the top is harder than ever.
Difficulty Trends
How hard were the practicals, really?
Average attainment rate (mean score / max score) for each practical station across all five years. Stations differ between years.
| Station | Attainment | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Cell & Molecular Biology | 82% | 2025 |
| Microbiology | 81% | 2025 |
| Biomedical Science | 81% | 2025 |
| Ecology & Systematics | 74% | 2025 |
| Biochemistry (2024) | 68% | 2024 |
| Plant Molecular Biology | 64% | 2023 |
| Plant Comp. Biology | 60% | 2026 |
| Animal Anatomy & Physiology | 59% | 2024 |
| Evolutionary Ecology | 59% | 2023 |
| Animal Physiology | 59% | 2026 |
| Bioinformatics (2023) | 58% | 2023 |
| Molecular Biology (2024) | 56% | 2024 |
| Animal Morphology | 54% | 2026 |
| Bioinformatics (2022) | 53% | 2022 |
| Molecular Biology (2026) | 52% | 2026 |
| Plant Physiology | 48% | 2022 |
| Biochemistry (2023) | 46% | 2023 |
| Bioinformatics (2024) | 45% | 2024 |
| Biochemistry (2022) | 37% | 2022 |
| Zoology | 29% | 2022 |
IBO 2025 had the highest average station attainment of any year: three of its four stations sat above 80%. By contrast, IBO 2026 had no station above 60%, and Molecular Biology (52%) was the hardest single station since 2022's Zoology (29%).
2022: 42% · 2023: 57% · 2024: 57% · 2025: 80% · 2026: 56%. The 2025 edition's unusually accessible labs made the theory exam the decisive differentiator.
Theory Still Decides Everything
Theory total vs. final score correlation
Correlation between theory total and final score. Higher = theory matters more.
After rising from 0.77 (2022) to 0.94 (2024), the theory-final correlation held at 0.94 in 2025 and reached 0.96 in 2026. At these levels, knowing a competitor's theory score predicts their final rank with near-certainty. The written exam is overwhelmingly the single most important component.
Country Trajectories
How did the top delegations perform across years?
Best medal breakdown per team. Read left to right: 2022 through 2026.
South Korea went from 0 Gold (2022) to a perfect 4G sweep in 2026, the most dramatic improvement of any delegation over five years. Turkiye has steadily climbed from all-Silver (2022) to consistent 2G finishes.
Iran and Singapore earned Gold every single year from 2022 to 2026, never falling below 2G in any edition. China has been perfect (4G) in every year they competed (2023-2026). India earned at least 1G in all five years.
The Medal Boundary
How tight were the cutoffs?
| Gap | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold-Silver | 0.54 pts | 0.39 pts | 0.53 pts | 0.38 pts | 0.32 pts |
| Silver-Bronze | 3.56 pts | 0.06 pts | 0.54 pts | 0.28 pts | 0.50 pts |
| Bronze-Merit | N/A | ~0.8 pts | 0.30 pts | 0.21 pts | N/A |
The Gold-Silver gap has narrowed from 0.54 (2022) to 0.32 (2026). In 2025, the Bronze-Merit gap was just 0.21 points, the tightest boundary in our five-year window. At the IBO level, medal color is increasingly decided by margins smaller than a single True/False question.
What We Learned
6 patterns that hold across every year
Theory is the best predictor of final rank
Correlation has risen from 0.77 (2022) to 0.96 (2026) and has never dipped below 0.77 in five years. No practical station comes close. Prioritize written exam mastery above all else.
Practical difficulty varies wildly between years
Average station attainment has ranged from 29% (Zoology 2022) to 82% (Cell & Mol Biology 2025). Prepare for stations at every difficulty level. A year with easy labs (2025: 80% avg) is followed by a year with hard ones (2026: 56% avg).
The Gold-Silver gap is never more than half a point
0.54, 0.39, 0.53, 0.38, 0.32 across five years, and trending down. Medal color at the top is decided by margins that amount to a single question. Accuracy under pressure matters more than breadth of knowledge.
Complete teams beat individual stars
Every Gold-sweep delegation across all five years had all 4 members medal. In 2026, four teams achieved the perfect 4G sweep simultaneously. Winning programs invest in depth, not a single standout.
The field is growing and getting more competitive
From 203 competitors (2024) to 302 (2026), and from 66 countries to 81 (2025). More nations are sending teams, and the medal boundaries have tightened despite the larger field. Each year it takes more to earn each tier.
China has been dominant since returning
Since re-entering in 2023, China has never placed fewer than 3 Gold, and achieved 4G in three consecutive years (2024-2026). Their average team score has consistently been the highest of any delegation.
Independent analysis computed from official IBO final results PDFs (2022-2026). Not an official IBO publication.